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Saturday, 3 January 2015

SK Petro @ 3.08! (11 Nov 2014)

This morning I was having a morning coffee chat session with a Senior Management staff of an upcoming IPO company (might or might not be listed). One of the topics we talked about is the Oil Price and surely SKPETRO, our retailers’ hot stock.
As per our posting on 7/11, first entry price was 3.08 (yes it touched and 3.08 hit the seller price). Conclusion: 1st 20% deployed @ 3.08. 
Yesterday I heard rumors out there/minority investors like us saying price of Oil is rock bottom and rebounding due to reason A, reason B and reason C. Providing all the studies and news stated why is has bottomed. KLSE Composite Index as at 11/11 is about PE 17++. With PE 17, market is not cheap; in fact we have one of the highest PE in SEA. One of the reasons our ‘Virtual Tracking Portfolio’ has not been buying/accumulating shares around 1 month (stopped at 30% shares / 70% cash). Market is choppy and our crystal ball is not working to tell us where the bottom of oil price is!
What are we going to do next for SKPETRO?
Stick to our investment plan:
To deploy another 20% at PE 9 +- : Price around 2.87
To deploy another 20% at PE 8 +- : Price around 2.55
To deploy another 20% at PE 7 +-: Price around 2.23
To deploy my last 20% at PE 6 +- : Price around 1.91 (near to lowest post IPO on 2012)
I might consider taking profit on SKPETRO if it hits 10% above my purchase price (if it happens and market is still choppy). To be updated in our FB page if any action taken.
Back to my friend who works in a company going for IPO. Guess what, the management is delaying the IPO date! One of the many reasons; Outlook for 2015 1st half is expected to be challenging. If the potential IPO Company is delaying their BIG IPO PLAN, as a small IKAN BILIS, perhaps I should sit down and drink some coffee, take my own sweet time to accumulate SKPETRO.
P/S: Historical PE 16 is not cheap. Forwards PE 9.66 is base on my own simple forecast. What if SKPetro might not be able to deliver 2nd half 2014 results as good as 1st half of 2014? PE should go higher than PE 9.66. Sit tight and watch the show.  . Our crystal ball still not working btw.
Disclaimer and Declaration
The full content of the article is for educational purposes only and should not be used as investment recommendations. We are not responsible for all investment activities conducted by the participants and cannot be held liable for any investment loss. Examples of specific shares may be citied for
illustration purposes.
Regards,
Humble Pie, 

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