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Saturday, 3 January 2015

THHEAVY, UMWOG, DAYANG, SKPETRO? Which one to BUY? (15 Nov 2014)

Dear Alex,
SKPETRO DAYANG UMWOG THHEAVY
PE 16.4 15.5 26.7 56
Forward PE 9.8 12.9 29.2 0
P/BV 1.74 3.28 2.46 1.21
Dividend 0.75% 2.5% 0 0
Current Ratio 1.15 1.44 3.26 1.36
Quick Ratio 1.15 1.43 3.1 1.33
D/E Ratio 1.61 0.48 0.37 1.2
Market Cap 18.5b 2.5b 6.96b 0.5b
Do not rely so much on historical P/E as it is just a guidance. Put more emphasis on Forward P/E as it should reflect the current full year result. Among the four stocks, SKPetro fair the best. P/BV for SKPETRO also selling at the cheapest. Current Ratio and Quick Ratio should not be a big issue for SKPETRO, DAYANG and UMWOG. The one that likely has a problem is THHEAVY. Out of 5 calender years, 2 in RED. with the Forward PE is Negative! (expecting a bad 2014 full year result).
When evaluating this 4 stocks at one go, you should take THHeavy out to have a more meaningful study. SKPETRO, DAYANG and UMWOG are belong to the big cap boys (command higher Forward PE. Average should be 15+- while THHeavy is a mid cap boy, looking at 10 to 13 forward PE. Keep in mind, the chairman's statement / CEO or MD's speech plays a very important role on determining the future flow of the company:
Be alert on the wordings like:
We see tough times ahead.
We are expecting a challenging time
Performance is not up to the expectation etc etc.
They are telling you what will happen to the company for the current calender year. Able to deliver or likely not to deliver.
At the point of writing, OIL PRICE IS STILL DROPPING. If you insist to put THHeavy as one of your consideration, let's see more details that I am sharing with you:
(The info is extracted from their filing with Bursa)
THHeavy
Supporting share price : NIL Tabung Haji owns 30.06%

UMWOG
Acquired Disposed Closed
27/10/2014 539100 ASB 3.41
27/10/2014 (1000000) EPF
28/10/2014 1500000 ASB 3.26
29/10/2014 800000 ASB 3.28
*14/11/2014 3.08
Note: ASB is Amanah Saham Bumiputera
EPF: Employees Provided Fund
Dayang
Acquired Disposed Close
20/10/2014 (409400) KWAP 2.92
21/10/2014 (84000) KWAP 2.89
23/10/2014 142300 (13410) KWAP 2.95
31/10/2014 (45500) KWAP 2.94
3/11/2014 (14600) KWAP 2.94
4/11/2014 515000 (603500) KWAP 2.85
5/11/2014 500000 (662550) KWAP 2.8
6/11/2014 1500000 (98200) KWAP 2.84
14/11/2014 2.8
Total : 2657300 (2051850)
Note: KWAP is Kumpulan Wang Persaraan
SKPetro
Acquired Disposed Closed
3/11/2014 4000500 (848300) EPF 3.39
4/11/2014 1500000 ASB 3.27
4/11/2014 6803100 EPF
5/11/2014 75000 ASB 3.14
5/11/2014 350000 (3060200) EPF
6/11/2014 1430000 (2536700) EPF 3.14
6/11/2014 750000 ASB
7/11/2014 4532500 EPF 3.08
10/11/2014 1655700 EPF 3.14
11/11/2014 7001000 EPF 3.09 HUMBLE PIE Buy@3.08
12/11/2014 ? 3.09
13/11/2014 ? 3.10
14/11/2014 ? 3.12
Total 28772800 (6445200)

Conclusion:
THHeavy drops so much, Lembaga Tabung Haji owns 30% have not come out to support their shares By looking at the company's value, do you want to start the ball rolling?
UMWOG is tightly gripped by UMW with 55%. The trading pattern is a bit difficult to read. Plus the stock is pricey with forward PE 29. I will give it a pass.
Dayang is acceptable but more expensive than SKPetro. Difficult to gauge what KWAP is doing. If you like the stock, buy at dip.
SKPETRO:
When the price dipped at 7/11/2014, that is where EPF go all out to collect a whoppy 4.5m shares closed at 3.08. In Bolehland, this INVISIBLE HAND does comes in handy.

Do you see EPF patterns? EPF and ASB has been a net buyer for the past 2 weeks.
On 11/11, Humble Pie made his first buy @ 3.08. True enough 10/11 and 11/11 EPF has been nett buyer again supporting the price to close at 3.09. Regardless of EPF purely want to support the price (not to break below 3) or seeing the value in SKPETRO, EPF has been working hard on SKPETRO shares price.
Can you read EPF pattern much easier than the other 3 stocks? Now you know why I go in @ 3.08, 2 days after it touched 3.08 lowest?
BTW, both of us do not have Crystal Ball, but do you want to
guess on 12/11, 13/11 and 14/11 why the price of OIL DIPS FROM 80++ to 70++ but SKPETRO CLOSED GREEN? We may wait for a few days for the filing with Bursa to gauge your guessing. But my sixth sense telling me, my answer is the same with you.
Good night 



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